Buccaneers vs Bengals: This is one of your games to target - highest O/U on the entire slate for good reason. I'm taking Kenneth Gainwell 20+ rec yards (line change to 23.5) here. Gainwell has cleared this line in 8/L9 games, and logged 81 rec yards in his last matchup vs Cincinnati (with Pitt). He's in a brand new scheme this year, but OC Zac Robinson, "Has made him the safety valve and he has gotten a lot of work as a receiver out of the backfield." I'm expecting a 1A/1B split between Irving and Gainwell, giving Gainwell 3rd downs and pass catching opportunities. I'm also taking Baker Mayfield 2+ passing TD's because I like the value, and throwing .5u on Higgins ATD (+125). We consistently targeted Higgins ATD last season and it paid off, outscoring Ja'Marr by 3 touchdowns. I also like alting up some passing/receiving props in this one.
Saints vs Lions: No straight bets here. I'm putting .5u on a SGP: Jahmyr Gibbs 25+ rec yards, Juwan Johnson 30+ rec yards. Juwan Johnson has cleared 30+ rec yards in all 11 games played with Shough.
Ravens vs Colts: No good value on Henry/Taylor. I'm taking Zay Flowers over 5.5 receptions (+120) for .5u. Despite the Colts (potentially) dangerous secondary, this is strictly a volume play. I could also see Lamar breaking a run here.
Browns vs Jaguars: I'm very big on Bhayshul Tuten this year. He has all the tools necessary to take an Etienne-type leap here as leadback, and I expect him to be utilized heavily in the pass game. However, I'm not so sure that he'll be used often in the RZ: Chris Rodriguez Jr is their power back, and I expect him to vulture some of Tuten's TD's. The Jags are one of the best offenses in the NFL, but don't expect them to produce too much against this Cleveland defense. There should be better opportunities to target both of these RB's later in the season. I see similar upside with Parker Washington. WR corps is very deep but Washington is an elite talent. Passing on this matchup personally.
Bills vs Texans: James Cook ATD is my main bet in this game. .5u on DMo ATD.
Jets vs Titans: It's week 1 - I'll allow it.
Bears vs Panthers: Another great matchup for props. I'm rolling with D'Andre Swift 80+ rush + rec yards and Tetairoa McMillan 60+ rec yards. No good value on Swift ATD, so off that for a straight bet, although I do like him to score. .25u on Jalen Coker ATD (+300), and .25u on Loveland ATD (+165).
Falcons vs Steelers: Pass
Dolphins vs Raiders: This is more of an obscure pick, but I'm taking Greg Dulcich 3+ receptions here. Not only has Dulcich emerged as a key pass-catcher in practice and minicamps, but Miami lacks a WR corps, and I wouldn't be surprised if Willis relied on Dulcich as a security blanket. .5u on Achane ATD (+120). .25u on Malik Willis ATD (+350) as a longshot. If Dulcich hauls in three receptions, we profit here. We did well last season with Achane's rush + rec yards, but I'm hesitant to take his rec yards here with Willis at QB. Willis typically likes to avoid quick passes and prefers to scramble out of the pocket when things get hectic; not to mention, the Dolphins lost Mike McDaniel, who was the primary reason for Achane's volume in the pass game. No Raiders here - maybe Nailor if you need one.
Packers vs Vikings: Not sure what to think about this one. I'm taking Jauan Jennings 23+ rec yards here as a .5u play. I'm not the most confident in this bet, but this line is just too low to ignore. Jennings has logged 23+ rec yards in 13 straight games (with SF) and granted he's in a brand new system with Minnesota, he can clear this line with one catch. He's WR8 on this team - that's why his line is so low. I expect a hot start for Justin Jefferson and a mid season regression. .5u on MarShawn Lloyd ATD. Overall just too many variables in this one, but I like the matchup.
Commanders vs Eagles: Here's another crazy statistic - Saquon Barkley has scored in six straight games vs the Commanders, with 2+ TD's in 4/6. I'm taking his ATD again here against a rush defense ranked bottom five going into the '26 season. Another crazy statistic: Barkley has logged 118+ rush yards in all four games played vs the Commanders as an Eagle, with 130+ rush yards in three of those games, and 146+ rush yards in two of them. Do with that what you will. Experts are high on DeVonta this season and for valid reason, but I believe Goedert and Barkley will be the biggest beneficiaries of AJ's departure. Curious to see how Daniels looks this year.
Cardinals vs Chargers: I like Ladd McConkey over 4.5 receptions here. Not only do the Cardinals have a horrific pass defense, but McDaniel's offense should manufacture touches for Ladd through motion and slot-usage, giving him a clear path to 7+ targets. McDaniel's offense has historically used pre-snap motion to manufacture easy touches for explosive receivers. I'll also be taking Trey McBride 56+ rec yards for .5u. The Chargers have a strong pass defense, but game script suggests Cardinals may play from behind and be forced to throw. McBride has also cleared this mark in 10/L12 games with Brissett.
Cowboys vs Giants: Load up those props here. Two bottom five defenses going head to head. I'm taking CeeDee Lamb 77+ rec yards, Jaxson Dart 30+ rush yards, .5u on Javonte Williams 86+ rush + rec yards, and .25u on Skattebo 70+ rush + rec yards. I'll also be throwing .25u on Pickens ATD (+150) and .25u on Dart ATD (+195). Interested to see Likely's role on this team.
Parlay 1: Tetairoa McMillan 50+ rec yards, Javonte Williams 80+ rush + rec yards (+150)
Parlay 2: Saquon Barkley 90+ rush yards, Bucky Irving 50+ rush yards (+300) (favorite)
Parlay 3: Kyler Murray over 23.5 rush yards, CeeDee Lamb 70+ rec yards (+250) (favorite)
Degen pick 1: David Montgomery ATD, Omarion Hampton ATD, Saquon Barkley ATD, Javonte Williams ATD (+870) (favorite, use bet protection if you bet on Saquon/any player more than once)
Degen pick 2: Baker Mayfield 2 Passing TD's, Jacoby Brissett 2 Passing TD's, Dak Prescott 2+ Passing TD's (+770)
Degen pick 3: Tee Higgins ATD, De'Von Achane ATD, George Pickens ATD (+1020)
Degen pick 4: Bryce Young ATD, Malik Willis ATD (+3800) [Bryce Young ATD single, +750]
[EDIT: Young's odds plummeted down to +425, I still like him at that value]
Potential ATD longshots to target: Ja'Kobi Lane, Keon Coleman, Dontayvion Wicks, Michael Wilson, Michael Pittman Jr, Isaiah Likely (Maybe a RR by 3's could be fun, but don't expect any of these guys to hit)
Bengals vs Buccaneers, Ravens vs Colts, Cowboys vs Giants - these all have shootout potential. There's some great value on either ATD on DK - I encourage you all to check them out.
Straight bets build bankroll. Parlays are strictly for fun, and relying on them is not a good foundation. All straight bets are 1u unless otherwise specified - parlays are .25u or less.
NFL MNF Writeup
J.K. Dobbins is fully healthy and enters tonight as the clear RB1. Not only did Dobbins average 5.0 YPC last season, but out of all 10 games played in 2025, Dobbins cleared 60+ rush yards in nine of them. Even if the Chiefs successfully limit the run, Dobbins should hit the 40 yards mark off volume alone.
Rashee Rice is my favorite target for receptions here. With Mahomes returning from injury and Denver possessing one of the NFL's best pass rushes, KC should rely on quick throws to their WR1. In his last matchup vs Denver, Rice logged six receptions on nine targets. I'll be throwing 1u on these two props, alted down and combined into a SGP.
I'll also be taking Waddle over 7.5 1st quarter rec yards for .5u. KC's secondary is essentially in shambles, and the Broncos should be looking to get Waddle involved early. If you want to pivot and take Waddle's rec yards instead of his first quarter rec yards, I don't mind that. In their first preseason drive together, Nix hit Waddle for a 35 yard completion. Nix has also demonstrated his willingness to throw the deep ball and I wouldn't be shocked if Waddle caught one here. A 1st quarter ladder on Waddle's rec yards could be a good move - just note that 1st quarter props are highly volatile, which is why I don't bet them often.
Parlay: J.K. Dobbins 40+ rush yards, Rashee Rice 4+ receptions (-110)
Degen parlay: J.K. Dobbins 50+ rush yards, Rashee Rice 6+ receptions, RJ Harvey 15+ rec yards (+610)
ATDs: Kenneth Walker III, J.K. Dobbins
Longshot ATDs: Troy Franklin (+1300), Cyrus Allen (+850)
Taking some small shots on Franklin and Allen here. Franklin saw 104 targets and caught 6 TDs in 2025, and with KC accounting for the new addition of Waddle, Franklin could see soft-coverage opportunities in the RZ. Cyrus Allen has been one of the biggest standouts of the off season for KC, consistently showing chemistry with Mahomes. There's a solid chance he sees very little volume, but I'm betting on one designed RZ opportunity. Between the two longshots, I lean Franklin.