TedHurst III

Nathan Jahnke·Oct 9

The Buccaneers continue a split at their third receiver spot: Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst III were in a constant rotation throughout the game.

Hurst is a third-round rookie who was generally considered a starter over the first three weeks. He played 74. 9% of offensive snaps, which wasn’t far behind Chris Godwin Jr. ’s 77. 5% or Emeka Egbuka’s 81. 7%. Tez Johnson was the fourth wide receiver on the depth chart, playing 25. 1%. Hurst generally played X, Egbuka Z and Godwin in the slot, but all three were aligned all over the place. Last week, Tampa Bay made a clear change, with Johnson playing 56. 5% and Hurst 38. 7%. This week, the split between Hurst and Johnson was nearly even, with the two consistently rotating in and out. Over the last two weeks, when Hurst has been on the field, he’s largely stuck at X, rather than moving around like the first three weeks. When Johnson has been on the field, he’s primarily played X but has moved around, similar to Hurst in the first three weeks. There was also a slight tendency for Johnson to play on early downs and Hurst on later downs. This change has not affected Egbuka or Godwin. They are both consistently on the field in 11 personnel, and Tampa Bay has used 12 personnel to give them a break at times. That includes some plays where Egbuka and Godwin are both off the field. Hurst was a popular late-round pick in deep leagues after significant off-season hype, but he won’t see fantasy value in this new role from the past two weeks.

Oct 8

You might think that Robinson would have wanted to build on his more varied personnel usage in Week 3, especially given his desire to run the football more in Week 4. But the Bucs offensive coordinator reverted back to chasing the record for 11 personnel snaps in one game, with the Bucs deploying an over 90 percent 3 wide receiver offense against the Packers. In that grouping, the Bucs were 22nd of 30 teams in EPA/play during Week 4 as of Monday night, posting a -0.19. It's ugly in so many ways, but it's even more confounding when they go to 11 personnel and so many play designs are set up with tight end Cade Otton as the primary option! Otton has 23 targets on the season, one less than Emeka Egbuka and five more than Chris Godwin. Because Robinson runs the ball out of 11 personnel more than anyone except the Eagles, he needs his wide receivers to play major roles as blockers. That's a problem, as Tez Johnson is too small to be effective, Egbuka has not shown the talent or tenacity for it and Godwin toggles between being solid and being 'too old for this ____'. Ted Hurst has actually been the team's most impactful blocker this season, but his results are all over the place, and he plays out wide more than the other receivers.