Between 2000 and 2005, the statement was absolutely true, with the Super Bowl-winning defenses outranking their offenses by eight spots. The lowest-rated defense to win a championship was ranked sixth, and half of the winners were ranked first overall. The average defense was ranked around 2.3, while the average offense was ranked around 10.5. From 2005 to 2015, the offensive ranks remained similar, while the defensive ranks began to fall due to changes in NFL offenses. This trend has continued over the years as offenses continue to evolve and defenses are forced to adjust.
Success in the playoffs has much more to do with teams playing well entering the playoffs than it does with the in-season rankings of a team’s offense or defense. The 2012 Ravens are a great example of this, as their offense and defense were ranked 16th and 17th, respectively. The Ravens started the year 9-2 but lost four of their last five due, in part, to a Ray Lewis injury. As he came back in time for the playoffs, the team was able to build momentum and outperform their rankings. Too many factors can play into statistics when it comes to rankings, making them unreliable at times when trying to predict the teams with the best chance of winning a Super Bowl. This does not mean they are unusable, but in order for them to be useful, they must be understood within the context of that team’s specific season.
